Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

14.9%

+572

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 3.4 K over 5 IP

Over 5.5 K

14.9%

+572

Over 6.5 K

6.2%

+1524

Over 7.5 K

2.1%

+4756

Over 8.5 K

0.5%

+18028

Season Pitching

ERA

5.47

WHIP

1.29

K/9

6.2

Expected IP

5.0

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

5.29

FIP

5.20

HR/9

1.75

19.1

BB%

8.7

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

17.0

Hard%

35.5

FB%

52.7

Pull%

36.7

Soft%

15.4

GB%

28.1

vs RHB

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

33.8

FB%

55.0

Pull%

35.9

Soft%

16.9

GB%

27.1

🐾Home

HR/FB

18.6

Hard%

39.5

FB%

56.6

Pull%

36.8

Soft%

15.8

GB%

21.1

Away

HR/FB

15.6

Hard%

32.3

FB%

49.5

Pull%

36.6

Soft%

15.1

GB%

34.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

2.59

Barrel % Allowed

11.2

Hard-Hit % Allowed

39.6

Avg EV Allowed

88.9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

120

vs RHB (HR factor)

119

vs SHB (HR factor)

119

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs TBProjected lineupTotal threat: 171%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	45.6	16.9	45.1	55	.364	18.9
FCCutter	17.5	6.5	22.6	39	.375	8.1
CHChangeup	16.6	8.1	43.2	49	.321	10.0
CUCurveball	12.7	14.3	35.7	71	.352	11.8

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY46% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	15.4	46.2	62	.378	30.4	24
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	17.2	44.8	53	.355	16.5	82

FCCutter18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	33.3	17	.383	0.0	6
vs RHB	8.0	20.0	44	.374	9.7	32

CHChangeup17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	8.1	43.2	49	.321	10.3	45

CUCurveball13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	14.3	35.7	71	.371	10.7	18

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 18.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB

4HR in 40 PA · 10.0%

Most off 4-Seamer

3 PA since last HR allowed

4-Seamer 2Cutter 1Slider 1

vs RHB🐾 exploit

11HR in 185 PA · 5.9%

Most off 4-Seamer

13 PA since last HR allowed

4-Seamer 7Curveball 2Cutter 2

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #1 — 3 of 8 HRs allowed (38%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#1#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.