Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

21.8%

+359

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 3.9 K over 5.4 IP

Over 5.5 K

21.8%

+359

Over 6.5 K

10.0%

+896

Over 7.5 K

3.8%

+2558

Over 8.5 K

1.1%

+8723

Season Pitching

ERA

4.25

WHIP

1.22

K/9

6.6

Expected IP

5.4

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT

Proj IP

102

ERA

4.56

FIP

4.40

HR/9

1.16

16.8

BB%

7.3

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.0

Hard%

29.9

FB%

36.3

Pull%

37.5

Soft%

14.1

GB%

44.7

vs LHB

HR/FB

12.3

Hard%

31.1

FB%

40.6

Pull%

30.6

Soft%

10.9

GB%

38.3

vs RHB

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

28.1

FB%

30.0

Pull%

47.9

Soft%

19.0

GB%

54.2

Home

HR/FB

5.1

Hard%

30.5

FB%

39.1

Pull%

35.1

Soft%

15.6

GB%

44.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

18.0

Hard%

29.3

FB%

33.6

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

12.7

GB%

45.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

1.11

Barrel % Allowed

6.6

Hard-Hit % Allowed

37.5

Avg EV Allowed

88.6

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

131

vs RHB (HR factor)

vs SHB (HR factor)

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs PHIProjected lineupTotal threat: 105%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	23.9	6.1	41.1	54	.320	16.1
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY	22.5	4.6	34.5	71	.312	22.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	19.7	10.6	47.5	42	.349	19.0
FCCutter	13.0	3.4	25.0	55	.292	14.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	9.6	46.2	46	.323	15.6	68
vs RHB	2.1	31.9	62	.317	15.0	57

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY23% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	4.5	27.3	64	.331	17.6	81
vs RHB	4.8	57.1	95	.269	31.2	34

FF4-Seam Fastball20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	13.0	52.2	46	.401	15.6	61
vs RHB	5.0	50.0	35	.234	28.6	29

FCCutter13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.1	28.6	50	.352	10.7	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	20.0	60	.240	33.3	22

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB🐾 exploit

9HR in 265 PA · 3.4%

Most off Changeup

1 PA since last HR allowed

Changeup 34-Seamer 2Cutter 1Sinker 1Slider 1Sweeper 1

vs RHB

3HR in 177 PA · 1.7%

Most off Changeup

19 PA since last HR allowed

Changeup 1Curveball 1Sinker 1

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #1 — 4 of 13 HRs allowed (31%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#1#3#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.