Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

45.1%

+122

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 5.3 K over 5.4 IP

Over 5.5 K

45.1%

+122

Over 6.5 K

26.7%

+275

Over 7.5 K

13.1%

+664

Over 8.5 K

5.2%

+1808

Season Pitching

ERA

3.28

WHIP

1.15

K/9

8.8

Expected IP

5.4

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

4.30

FIP

4.24

HR/9

1.18

21.3

BB%

8.3

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

32.9

FB%

37.0

Pull%

44.6

Soft%

13.1

GB%

38.4

vs LHB

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

38.7

FB%

35.3

Pull%

40.9

Soft%

13.1

GB%

37.5

vs RHB

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

22.4

FB%

40.0

Pull%

51.3

Soft%

13.2

GB%

40.0

Home

HR/FB

7.5

Hard%

36.3

FB%

39.6

Pull%

47.4

Soft%

14.8

GB%

38.8

🐾Away

HR/FB

8.0

Hard%

26.9

FB%

32.5

Pull%

39.7

Soft%

10.3

GB%

37.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

0.73

Barrel % Allowed

8.0

Hard-Hit % Allowed

33.3

Avg EV Allowed

87.7

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

vs RHB (HR factor)

110

vs SHB (HR factor)

104

Great American Ball Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs CINProjected lineupTotal threat: 119%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SVSlurve	32.8	3.2	32.8	69	.273	22.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	31.7	8.8	41.9	49	.345	17.3
CHChangeup	12.6	15.2	21.9	67	.375	14.8
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	11.7	12.9	32.0	81	.340	26.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SVSlurve33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	36.1	69	.301	23.1	68
vs RHB	7.7	30.8	69	.237	26.2	50

FF4-Seam Fastball32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.9	34.4	50	.389	16.8	88
vs RHB	0.0	56.2	44	.211	19.6	27

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	20.0	67	.379	16.0	35
vs RHB	no sample

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	16.7	50.0	78	.357	22.2	21
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.7	23.1	85	.316	33.3	16

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #3 — 6 of 13 HRs allowed (46%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#3#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.