Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

51.0%

-104

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 5.5 K over 5.4 IP

Over 5.5 K

51.0%

-104

Over 6.5 K

31.7%

+215

Over 7.5 K

16.5%

+507

Over 8.5 K

7.0%

+1326

Season Pitching

ERA

2.27

WHIP

0.97

K/9

9.3

Expected IP

5.4

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

4.29

FIP

4.15

HR/9

1.30

21.5

BB%

6.6

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

3.3

Hard%

24.4

FB%

49.2

Pull%

46.3

Soft%

20.3

GB%

35.2

vs LHB

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

17.6

FB%

50.0

Pull%

43.2

Soft%

21.6

GB%

35.1

vs RHB

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

34.7

FB%

47.9

Pull%

51.0

Soft%

18.4

GB%

35.4

Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

20.3

FB%

53.4

Pull%

44.6

Soft%

21.6

GB%

34.2

🐾Away

HR/FB

9.5

Hard%

30.6

FB%

42.9

Pull%

49.0

Soft%

18.4

GB%

36.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

0.38

Barrel % Allowed

7.3

Hard-Hit % Allowed

33.3

Avg EV Allowed

86.8

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

vs RHB (HR factor)

115

vs SHB (HR factor)

102

Daikin Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs HOUProjected lineupTotal threat: 111%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.3	8.3	32.4	44	.285	17.8
FSSplit-Finger	26.7	2.4	23.5	78	.207	24.1
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	25.1	11.5	45.8	58	.253	36.4
SISinker	10.2	7.7	34.8	62	.295	27.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	2.6	25.6	41	.243	15.8	53
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	55.6	56	.403	25.0	18

FSSplit-Finger27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	3.0	15.2	76	.165	31.7	54
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	50.0	88	.402	18.5	15

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.7	46.7	67	.213	23.8	23
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	36.4	46	.298	50.0	19

SISinker10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	7.7	30.8	62	.296	23.1	33

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 36.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB

1HR in 131 PA · 0.8%

Most off 4-Seamer

121 PA since last HR allowed

4-Seamer 1

vs RHB🐾 exploit

2HR in 93 PA · 2.1%

Most off 4-Seamer

60 PA since last HR allowed

4-Seamer 1Slider 1

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #2 — 9 of 21 HRs allowed (43%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#2#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.