Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

55.5%

-125

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 5.8 K over 5.4 IP

Over 5.5 K

55.5%

-125

Over 6.5 K

35.9%

+179

Over 7.5 K

19.5%

+414

Over 8.5 K

8.7%

+1053

Season Pitching

ERA

4.18

WHIP

1.35

K/9

9.6

Expected IP

5.4

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

4.22

FIP

3.93

HR/9

1.11

24.6

BB%

9.4

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

7.3

Hard%

37.9

FB%

41.6

Pull%

39.9

Soft%

14.1

GB%

37.1

vs LHB

HR/FB

4.3

Hard%

36.0

FB%

46.0

Pull%

32.0

Soft%

20.0

GB%

38.0

vs RHB

HR/FB

8.5

Hard%

38.5

FB%

40.1

Pull%

42.6

Soft%

12.2

GB%

36.7

🐾Home

HR/FB

9.7

Hard%

41.6

FB%

40.3

Pull%

48.1

Soft%

11.7

GB%

35.1

Away

HR/FB

5.9

Hard%

35.5

FB%

42.5

Pull%

34.7

Soft%

15.7

GB%

38.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

0.76

Barrel % Allowed

8.6

Hard-Hit % Allowed

44.4

Avg EV Allowed

89.7

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

vs RHB (HR factor)

vs SHB (HR factor)

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs MINProjected lineupTotal threat: 96%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	43.5	7.4	40.2	42	.318	20.4
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	22.5	9.8	54.3	71	.319	21.0
CHChangeup	9.9	4.5	25.0	68	.240	17.0
SLSlider	9.4	14.3	55.0	67	.291	16.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball44% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.1	42.9	36	.337	24.2	27
vs RHB	7.4	39.5	43	.314	20.0	122

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY23% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	20.0	80	.362	12.5	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	8.7	56.5	70	.314	21.4	76

CHChangeup10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.5	36.4	68	.240	15.4	31

SLSlider9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	14.3	57.1	67	.291	15.0	30
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB

1HR in 86 PA · 1.2%

Most off Curveball

56 PA since last HR allowed

Curveball 1

vs RHB🐾 exploit

5HR in 255 PA · 2.0%

Most off Cutter

100 PA since last HR allowed

Cutter 24-Seamer 2Curveball 1

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #1 — 9 of 22 HRs allowed (41%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#1#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.