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Shane Baz
BAL · SP
🐾 Tonight2:10 PM MT · T-Mobile Park
Pitcher Strikeouts
29.3%
+241
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
Projected 4.4 K over 5.4 IP
Over 5.5 K
29.3%
+241
Over 6.5 K
14.8%
+576
Over 7.5 K
6.1%
+1535
Over 8.5 K
2.0%
+4795
Season Pitching
ERA
4.06
WHIP
1.39
K/9
7.3
Expected IP
5.4
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-07-16 · THE BAT
Proj IP
71
ERA
4.85
FIP
4.68
HR/9
1.41
K%
19.9
BB%
8.7
2026 Contact Allowed
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG
Season
HR/FB
6.9
Hard%
35.8
FB%
38.8
Pull%
37.6
Soft%
14.2
GB%
37.6
vs LHB
HR/FB
6.3
Hard%
34.8
FB%
43.5
Pull%
32.6
Soft%
15.2
GB%
32.1
vs RHB
HR/FB
7.8
Hard%
37.0
FB%
33.1
Pull%
43.5
Soft%
13.0
GB%
44.2
Home
HR/FB
5.3
Hard%
37.7
FB%
37.0
Pull%
37.7
Soft%
16.9
GB%
39.0
🐾Away
HR/FB
8.1
Hard%
34.2
FB%
40.2
Pull%
37.5
Soft%
12.0
GB%
36.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed
HR/9
0.88
Barrel % Allowed
8.7
Hard-Hit % Allowed
41.1
Avg EV Allowed
90.4
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB (HR factor)
108
vs RHB (HR factor)
92
vs SHB (HR factor)
100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat
🐾 Tonight vs SEAConfirmed lineupTotal threat: 119%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)
PitchUse%BRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%
FF33.510.034.939.36415.4
CU⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT33.345.2.29122.5
FC17.84.839.366.35214.8
CH7.715.038.980.4744.3
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
FF4-Seam Fastball34% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT11.131.543.40316.276
vs RHB6.243.825.25714.025
FCCutter18% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT0.030.090.4575.317
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY5.840.462.32721.165
CHChangeup8% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB15.035.080.4744.021
vs RHBno sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat
vs LHB🐾 exploit
4HR in 222 PA · 1.8%
Most off 4-Seamer
11 PA since last HR allowed
4-Seamer 2Changeup 1Knuckle-Curve 1
vs RHB
4HR in 151 PA · 2.6%
Most off Cutter
70 PA since last HR allowed
Cutter 24-Seamer 1Knuckle-Curve 1
HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot
⚠ Gets punished most by spot #26 of 19 HRs allowed (32%).
2
1
·
6
2
🐾
6
3
🐾
5
4
🐾
5
·
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Vulnerable to:#2#3#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.