Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

38.6%

+159

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 4.9 K over 5.4 IP

Over 5.5 K

38.6%

+159

Over 6.5 K

21.5%

+366

Over 7.5 K

9.8%

+915

Over 8.5 K

3.7%

+2623

Season Pitching

ERA

3.15

WHIP

1.15

K/9

8.2

Expected IP

5.4

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

4.69

FIP

4.45

HR/9

1.27

21.1

BB%

8.8

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.3

Hard%

30.4

FB%

34.4

Pull%

40.3

Soft%

16.8

GB%

48.1

vs LHB

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

28.2

FB%

30.2

Pull%

41.0

Soft%

16.2

GB%

51.7

vs RHB

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

33.8

FB%

41.1

Pull%

39.2

Soft%

17.6

GB%

42.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

29.3

FB%

36.7

Pull%

39.4

Soft%

19.2

GB%

42.9

Away

HR/FB

17.2

Hard%

31.5

FB%

31.9

Pull%

41.3

Soft%

14.1

GB%

53.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

1.01

Barrel % Allowed

6.3

Hard-Hit % Allowed

37.7

Avg EV Allowed

88.3

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

vs RHB (HR factor)

114

vs SHB (HR factor)

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs PITProjected lineupTotal threat: 94%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	35.0	6.8	41.2	62	.351	29.1
FCCutter	18.6	8.3	38.2	75	.343	15.8
CHChangeup	18.3	5.6	26.5	75	.180	23.1
SLSlider	16.0	5.7	39.4	66	.292	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY35% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	9.4	40.6	75	.404	25.6	51
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.8	45.2	52	.309	31.4	68

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	13.6	50.0	82	.454	12.5	31
vs RHB	0.0	21.4	64	.143	—	15

CHChangeup18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.9	29.4	77	.190	24.2	51
vs RHB	no sample

SLSlider16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.6	50.0	50	.391	18.5	24
vs RHB	5.9	35.3	82	.202	19.1	26

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 29.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB🐾 exploit

6HR in 185 PA · 3.2%

Most off Cutter

24 PA since last HR allowed

Cutter 2Sinker 2Slider 2

vs RHB

3HR in 125 PA · 2.4%

Most off 4-Seamer

5 PA since last HR allowed

4-Seamer 1Sinker 1Slider 1

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #2 — 4 of 13 HRs allowed (31%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#2#4#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.