Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

34.3%

+191

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 4.7 K over 5.1 IP

Over 5.5 K

34.3%

+191

Over 6.5 K

18.3%

+446

Over 7.5 K

8.0%

+1148

Over 8.5 K

2.9%

+3414

Season Pitching

ERA

4.71

WHIP

1.50

K/9

8.3

Expected IP

5.1

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

5.12

FIP

4.61

HR/9

1.50

20.2

BB%

7.5

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

14.8

Hard%

39.1

FB%

40.9

Pull%

46.5

Soft%

12.3

GB%

35.6

vs LHB

HR/FB

26.1

Hard%

44.1

FB%

33.8

Pull%

44.1

Soft%

11.8

GB%

44.1

vs RHB

HR/FB

12.0

Hard%

37.5

FB%

43.2

Pull%

47.2

Soft%

12.5

GB%

32.9

Home

HR/FB

13.4

Hard%

37.0

FB%

41.1

Pull%

52.1

Soft%

12.7

GB%

36.2

🐾Away

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

42.0

FB%

40.7

Pull%

38.7

Soft%

11.8

GB%

34.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

1.79

Barrel % Allowed

10.2

Hard-Hit % Allowed

44.7

Avg EV Allowed

91.5

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

vs RHB (HR factor)

vs SHB (HR factor)

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs KCProjected lineupTotal threat: 142%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.4	12.5	47.4	48	.449	10.4
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	14.9	43.5	62	.293	27.7
CUCurveball	16.4	13.3	35.7	60	.208	19.8
CHChangeup	15.4	4.4	32.6	67	.383	9.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	58.3	42	.613	13.6	19
vs RHB	11.8	47.1	49	.421	10.2	89

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	48.0	60	.332	33.3	40
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	40.9	64	.261	25.6	46

CUCurveball16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	15.4	38.5	62	.209	20.8	31

CHChangeup15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.4	31.1	67	.383	13.6	53

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB

6HR in 79 PA · 7.6%

Most off Slider

16 PA since last HR allowed

Slider 54-Seamer 1

vs RHB🐾 exploit

8HR in 247 PA · 3.2%

Most off 4-Seamer

1 PA since last HR allowed

4-Seamer 4Curveball 2Slider 2

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #3 — 5 of 17 HRs allowed (29%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#3#1#2#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.