Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

57.6%

-136

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 5.9 K over 5.4 IP

Over 5.5 K

57.6%

-136

Over 6.5 K

37.9%

+164

Over 7.5 K

21.0%

+377

Over 8.5 K

9.6%

+946

Season Pitching

ERA

4.36

WHIP

1.17

K/9

9.8

Expected IP

5.4

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

4.51

FIP

4.44

HR/9

1.54

23.7

BB%

7.9

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

16.3

Hard%

30.7

FB%

36.4

Pull%

39.3

Soft%

17.8

GB%

44.2

vs LHB

HR/FB

15.0

Hard%

32.8

FB%

32.8

Pull%

36.1

Soft%

18.0

GB%

41.0

vs RHB

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

30.1

FB%

37.5

Pull%

40.2

Soft%

17.7

GB%

45.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

15.9

Hard%

28.5

FB%

38.4

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

20.0

GB%

42.7

Away

HR/FB

17.1

Hard%

34.3

FB%

33.3

Pull%

38.1

Soft%

14.3

GB%

46.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

1.82

Barrel % Allowed

11.9

Hard-Hit % Allowed

41.6

Avg EV Allowed

89.3

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

117

vs RHB (HR factor)

107

vs SHB (HR factor)

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs CHWConfirmed lineupTotal threat: 186%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.7	21.9	54.5	56	.431	18.7
CHChangeup	22.7	8.6	33.3	67	.248	24.0
SISinker	19.7	6.5	46.4	48	.380	16.2
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	19.3	9.1	17.6	59	.219	31.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	44.4	77.8	44	.357	45.5	14
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	50.9	58	.445	14.2	79

CHChangeup23% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	8.9	33.9	67	.251	22.5	80

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.3	43.5	57	.378	27.8	32
vs RHB	7.7	48.7	44	.381	11.5	47

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	30.0	80	.215	22.7	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	25.0	42	.220	31.6	26

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 31.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB

3HR in 77 PA · 3.9%

Most off 4-Seamer

10 PA since last HR allowed

4-Seamer 3

vs RHB🐾 exploit

15HR in 266 PA · 5.6%

Most off 4-Seamer

8 PA since last HR allowed

4-Seamer 7Changeup 4Slider 2Sweeper 2

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #2 — 2 of 6 HRs allowed (33%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#2#3#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.