Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

43.8%

+128

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 5.2 K over 5.4 IP

Over 5.5 K

43.8%

+128

Over 6.5 K

25.6%

+290

Over 7.5 K

12.4%

+706

Over 8.5 K

4.9%

+1942

Season Pitching

ERA

3.71

WHIP

1.27

K/9

8.7

Expected IP

5.4

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

4.65

FIP

4.43

HR/9

1.19

23.7

BB%

10.9

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.8

Hard%

38.4

FB%

34.3

Pull%

42.8

Soft%

13.0

GB%

44.5

vs LHB

HR/FB

22.7

Hard%

42.9

FB%

31.9

Pull%

45.7

Soft%

5.7

GB%

40.6

vs RHB

HR/FB

4.0

Hard%

33.8

FB%

36.8

Pull%

39.7

Soft%

20.6

GB%

48.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

21.7

Hard%

30.0

FB%

33.3

Pull%

41.4

Soft%

14.3

GB%

47.8

Away

HR/FB

4.2

Hard%

47.1

FB%

35.3

Pull%

44.1

Soft%

11.8

GB%

41.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

1.06

Barrel % Allowed

5.1

Hard-Hit % Allowed

39.9

Avg EV Allowed

90.3

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

vs RHB (HR factor)

115

vs SHB (HR factor)

102

Daikin Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs DETProjected lineupTotal threat: 94%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	35.4	3.7	29.6	59	.263	23.5
FF4-Seam Fastball	25.1	5.9	48.5	56	.350	12.2
SISinker	18.0	3.2	42.9	55	.330	23.1
CHChangeup	9.7	6.2	46.7	81	.417	11.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY35% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.0	25.0	65	.284	32.5	40
vs RHB	2.9	32.4	56	.248	20.0	56

FF4-Seam Fastball25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.8	42.9	62	.361	14.3	28
vs RHB	7.7	53.8	46	.335	10.2	21

SISinker18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	44.4	67	.365	—	12
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.5	45.5	50	.314	25.0	29

CHChangeup10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.2	43.8	81	.417	13.6	20
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB🐾 exploit

5HR in 111 PA · 4.5%

Most off 4-Seamer

5 PA since last HR allowed

4-Seamer 4Changeup 1

vs RHB

1HR in 112 PA · 0.9%

Most off Sweeper

26 PA since last HR allowed

Sweeper 1

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #4 — 3 of 3 HRs allowed (100%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.