Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

41.6%

+140

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 5.1 K over 5.1 IP

Over 5.5 K

41.6%

+140

Over 6.5 K

23.8%

+319

Over 7.5 K

11.3%

+786

Over 8.5 K

4.3%

+2198

Season Pitching

ERA

4.30

WHIP

1.57

K/9

9.0

Expected IP

5.1

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

4.31

FIP

4.27

HR/9

1.17

22.3

BB%

9.7

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

15.5

Hard%

32.9

FB%

34.1

Pull%

35.2

Soft%

19.0

GB%

50.0

vs LHB

HR/FB

16.3

Hard%

31.8

FB%

33.1

Pull%

40.2

Soft%

15.9

GB%

51.5

vs RHB

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

34.6

FB%

35.9

Pull%

26.9

Soft%

24.4

GB%

47.4

Home

HR/FB

13.0

Hard%

29.7

FB%

36.2

Pull%

30.5

Soft%

21.1

GB%

53.5

🐾Away

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

37.8

FB%

30.9

Pull%

42.7

Soft%

15.9

GB%

44.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

1.35

Barrel % Allowed

10.5

Hard-Hit % Allowed

37.1

Avg EV Allowed

88.2

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

108

vs RHB (HR factor)

vs SHB (HR factor)

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs SEAProjected lineupTotal threat: 156%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	32.1	10.4	36.1	55	.302	21.7
SLSlider	26.9	10.3	33.3	76	.339	18.9
CUCurveball	22.0	13.2	45.9	76	.261	21.3
FF4-Seam Fastball	18.9	5.6	36.0	48	.400	16.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	9.1	40.9	57	.305	22.9	74
vs RHB	12.1	30.3	52	.298	19.0	45

SLSlider27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	7.1	35.7	89	.299	22.4	52
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	13.3	30.0	63	.380	16.4	44

CUCurveball22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	10.7	42.9	82	.245	21.0	42
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	50.0	60	.297	19.4	19

FF4-Seam Fastball19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.4	31.1	49	.377	23.8	56
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	77.8	44	.514	0.0	13

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB🐾 exploit

7HR in 224 PA · 3.1%

Most off Slider

4 PA since last HR allowed

Slider 3Curveball 24-Seamer 1Sinker 1

vs RHB

4HR in 122 PA · 3.3%

Most off Slider

11 PA since last HR allowed

Slider 3Sinker 1

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #1 — 1 of 2 HRs allowed (50%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#1#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.