Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

24.6%

+306

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 4.1 K over 5.4 IP

Over 5.5 K

24.6%

+306

Over 6.5 K

11.8%

+749

Over 7.5 K

4.6%

+2079

Over 8.5 K

1.4%

+6841

Season Pitching

ERA

3.63

WHIP

1.30

K/9

6.9

Expected IP

5.4

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

5.20

FIP

5.12

HR/9

1.44

14.9

BB%

8.2

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.1

Hard%

37.7

FB%

46.5

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

9.3

GB%

34.7

vs LHB

HR/FB

7.3

Hard%

36.6

FB%

45.5

Pull%

43.9

Soft%

10.6

GB%

32.2

vs RHB

HR/FB

13.6

Hard%

39.1

FB%

47.8

Pull%

34.8

Soft%

7.6

GB%

38.0

Home

HR/FB

12.9

Hard%

41.9

FB%

50.0

Pull%

46.8

Soft%

8.1

GB%

29.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

5.4

Hard%

31.9

FB%

41.6

Pull%

30.8

Soft%

11.0

GB%

42.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

1.30

Barrel % Allowed

13.5

Hard-Hit % Allowed

47.0

Avg EV Allowed

91.3

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

136

vs RHB (HR factor)

vs SHB (HR factor)

112

Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs BALProjected lineupTotal threat: 147%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	31.1	15.4	45.7	44	.341	14.3
FCCutter	23.7	14.3	42.2	61	.424	13.0
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	13.5	16.7	54.5	60	.450	26.5
CUCurveball	11.1	3.8	50.0	73	.356	13.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	12.7	47.3	51	.349	14.6	72
vs RHB	21.7	47.8	26	.328	15.4	36

FCCutter24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	3.7	33.3	70	.316	14.3	35
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	27.3	54.5	50	.560	9.5	27

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.0	40.0	70	.438	31.2	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	18.8	56.2	56	.460	20.0	39

CUCurveball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.8	52.4	67	.330	19.4	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	60.0	100	.473	11.1	8

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #3 — 8 of 15 HRs allowed (53%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.