Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

52.3%

-110

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 5.6 K over 5.4 IP

Over 5.5 K

52.3%

-110

Over 6.5 K

32.9%

+204

Over 7.5 K

17.3%

+478

Over 8.5 K

7.5%

+1240

Season Pitching

ERA

4.86

WHIP

1.39

K/9

9.4

Expected IP

5.4

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

4.85

FIP

4.87

HR/9

1.55

21.8

BB%

9.7

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

14.9

Hard%

33.5

FB%

40.5

Pull%

39.1

Soft%

17.2

GB%

36.6

vs LHB

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

32.4

FB%

40.0

Pull%

41.9

Soft%

17.6

GB%

35.6

vs RHB

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

35.1

FB%

41.2

Pull%

35.1

Soft%

16.5

GB%

38.1

🐾Home

HR/FB

16.3

Hard%

29.9

FB%

41.9

Pull%

41.9

Soft%

21.4

GB%

37.6

Away

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

37.1

FB%

39.1

Pull%

36.2

Soft%

12.9

GB%

35.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

1.42

Barrel % Allowed

10.0

Hard-Hit % Allowed

40.2

Avg EV Allowed

88.0

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

vs RHB (HR factor)

vs SHB (HR factor)

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs MINConfirmed lineupTotal threat: 135%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	38.5	12.7	42.1	52	.319	16.9
SLSlider	18.2	13.5	51.4	62	.354	26.0
CHChangeup	17.5	11.8	34.7	69	.317	18.4
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.1	3.7	34.6	52	.359	34.8

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	41.7	48	.338	21.1	72
vs RHB	6.5	48.4	58	.291	15.3	47

SLSlider18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	19.0	52.4	67	.368	23.7	34
vs RHB	6.2	50.0	56	.317	30.2	33

CHChangeup18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	37.1	74	.383	12.1	49
vs RHB	12.5	37.5	56	.205	26.1	28

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	35.0	65	.399	35.3	29
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	28.6	14	.259	33.3	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 34.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB🐾 exploit

7HR in 193 PA · 3.6%

Most off 4-Seamer

16 PA since last HR allowed

4-Seamer 2Slider 2Changeup 1Cutter 1Sinker 1

vs RHB

5HR in 156 PA · 3.2%

Most off 4-Seamer

12 PA since last HR allowed

4-Seamer 2Changeup 1Curveball 1Slider 1

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #4 — 5 of 16 HRs allowed (31%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#4#1#2#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.