Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

44.1%

+127

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 5.2 K over 5.4 IP

Over 5.5 K

44.1%

+127

Over 6.5 K

25.8%

+287

Over 7.5 K

12.5%

+698

Over 8.5 K

5.0%

+1917

Season Pitching

ERA

4.28

WHIP

1.04

K/9

8.7

Expected IP

5.4

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

3.82

FIP

3.88

HR/9

1.39

24.4

BB%

5.3

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

7.6

Hard%

35.1

FB%

44.0

Pull%

38.1

Soft%

17.1

GB%

37.2

vs LHB

HR/FB

8.6

Hard%

39.3

FB%

47.1

Pull%

34.7

Soft%

14.5

GB%

30.8

vs RHB

HR/FB

6.0

Hard%

29.4

FB%

39.7

Pull%

42.9

Soft%

20.6

GB%

46.0

🐾Home

HR/FB

3.8

Hard%

29.8

FB%

41.9

Pull%

41.1

Soft%

20.2

GB%

37.1

Away

HR/FB

10.1

Hard%

38.9

FB%

45.4

Pull%

36.0

Soft%

14.9

GB%

37.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

0.99

Barrel % Allowed

7.3

Hard-Hit % Allowed

44.4

Avg EV Allowed

89.6

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

108

vs RHB (HR factor)

vs SHB (HR factor)

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs BALConfirmed lineupTotal threat: 100%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	48.9	7.1	42.5	38	.290	17.6
SISinker	18.1	8.5	51.8	56	.345	20.4
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	13.9	7.7	38.2	69	.257	24.6
SLSlider	12.9	9.1	50.0	59	.254	17.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball49% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.8	45.5	42	.339	16.0	104
vs RHB	5.6	36.1	31	.196	20.5	53

SISinker18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.8	56.2	56	.397	9.5	20
vs RHB	4.7	51.2	56	.329	25.7	56

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	33.3	83	.293	23.1	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	3.7	33.3	63	.240	27.1	40

SLSlider13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	11.1	50.0	56	.234	18.9	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	50.0	75	.405	0.0	4

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB🐾 exploit

6HR in 196 PA · 3.1%

Most off 4-Seamer

10 PA since last HR allowed

4-Seamer 3Sinker 1Slider 1Sweeper 1

vs RHB

3HR in 154 PA · 1.9%

Most off Sinker

3 PA since last HR allowed

Sinker 2Sweeper 1

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #3 — 8 of 27 HRs allowed (30%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#3#2#4#6

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.