Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

59.1%

-144

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 6.0 K over 5.4 IP

Over 5.5 K

59.1%

-144

Over 6.5 K

39.3%

+154

Over 7.5 K

22.0%

+354

Over 8.5 K

10.2%

+882

Season Pitching

ERA

4.24

WHIP

1.29

K/9

9.9

Expected IP

5.4

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

4.13

FIP

3.88

HR/9

0.94

22.3

BB%

9.4

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

27.9

FB%

32.7

Pull%

48.5

Soft%

15.6

GB%

48.6

vs LHB

HR/FB

7.1

Hard%

30.3

FB%

30.4

Pull%

52.1

Soft%

12.0

GB%

47.1

vs RHB

HR/FB

9.5

Hard%

25.0

FB%

35.3

Pull%

44.2

Soft%

20.0

GB%

50.4

Home

HR/FB

7.5

Hard%

29.1

FB%

34.2

Pull%

46.2

Soft%

17.9

GB%

50.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

26.9

FB%

31.4

Pull%

50.3

Soft%

13.8

GB%

47.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

0.49

Barrel % Allowed

3.6

Hard-Hit % Allowed

29.9

Avg EV Allowed

87.5

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

100

vs RHB (HR factor)

vs SHB (HR factor)

Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs ATLProjected lineupTotal threat: 86%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	36.5	7.7	36.9	58	.355	19.3
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	27.6	2.3	16.3	80	.217	29.6
CHChangeup	19.2	0.0	26.2	71	.291	14.3
FCCutter	13.1	4.5	33.3	50	.295	21.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.8	35.7	60	.373	25.0	70
vs RHB	10.2	36.7	57	.332	11.6	57

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	33.3	100	.238	33.3	44
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	7.7	65	.202	27.7	54

CHChangeup19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	33.3	78	.304	14.3	52
vs RHB	0.0	0.0	38	.242	12.9	13

FCCutter13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	40.0	70	.341	29.4	16
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	33	.245	17.6	15

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 29.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB🐾 exploit

3HR in 187 PA · 1.6%

Most off Curveball

11 PA since last HR allowed

Curveball 2Sinker 1

vs RHB

2HR in 145 PA · 1.4%

Most off Sinker

37 PA since last HR allowed

Sinker 2

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #3 — 4 of 8 HRs allowed (50%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#3#1#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.