Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

16.2%

+518

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 3.5 K over 4.7 IP

Over 5.5 K

16.2%

+518

Over 6.5 K

6.8%

+1361

Over 7.5 K

2.3%

+4167

Over 8.5 K

0.6%

+15447

Season Pitching

ERA

5.01

WHIP

1.45

K/9

6.8

Expected IP

4.7

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

5.21

FIP

4.93

HR/9

1.41

16.7

BB%

8.6

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

4.3

Hard%

34.6

FB%

37.0

Pull%

42.5

Soft%

9.4

GB%

43.3

vs LHB

HR/FB

5.9

Hard%

37.5

FB%

47.2

Pull%

36.1

Soft%

6.9

GB%

37.5

vs RHB

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

30.9

FB%

23.6

Pull%

50.9

Soft%

12.7

GB%

50.9

🐾Home

HR/FB

6.3

Hard%

29.8

FB%

34.0

Pull%

36.2

Soft%

14.9

GB%

44.7

Away

HR/FB

3.2

Hard%

37.5

FB%

38.8

Pull%

46.3

Soft%

6.3

GB%

42.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

0.44

Barrel % Allowed

7.9

Hard-Hit % Allowed

40.2

Avg EV Allowed

90.5

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

vs RHB (HR factor)

110

vs SHB (HR factor)

104

Great American Ball Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs ARIProjected lineupTotal threat: 107%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	30.2	9.6	51.1	58	.420	20.0
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	24.8	6.5	36.7	74	.257	23.1
FF4-Seam Fastball	23.7	7.4	34.6	44	.381	10.9
CHChangeup	21.2	3.4	30.8	72	.289	16.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	23.8	76.2	52	.465	22.7	33
vs RHB	0.0	35.5	61	.377	15.8	38

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	18.2	36.4	82	.266	20.0	14
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	35.0	70	.253	24.3	30

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	45.0	45	.425	17.9	34
vs RHB	0.0	14.3	43	.214	4.3	8

CHChangeup21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.0	28.0	72	.295	17.1	33
vs RHB	0.0	50.0	75	.252	18.2	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #1 — 1 of 1 HRs allowed (100%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.