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Chase BurnsRHP
CIN · SP
🐾 Tonight5:10 PM MT · Great American Ball Park
Pitcher Strikeouts
73.4%
-275
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
Projected 6.8 K over 5.8 IP
Over 5.5 K
73.4%
-275
Over 6.5 K
54.9%
-122
Over 7.5 K
35.3%
+183
Over 8.5 K
19.0%
+425
Season Pitching
ERA
2.14
WHIP
0.99
K/9
10.5
Expected IP
5.8
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-14 · THE BAT
Proj IP
80
ERA
4.00
FIP
3.87
HR/9
1.32
K%
27.4
BB%
8.4
2026 Contact Allowed
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG
Season
HR/FB
11.5
Hard%
27.6
FB%
42.6
Pull%
41.6
Soft%
13.5
GB%
39.9
vs LHB
HR/FB
16.7
Hard%
27.1
FB%
44.2
Pull%
49.0
Soft%
17.7
GB%
37.9
vs RHB
HR/FB
5.6
Hard%
28.1
FB%
40.9
Pull%
33.7
Soft%
9.0
GB%
42.0
🐾Home
HR/FB
10.6
Hard%
26.0
FB%
46.1
Pull%
44.2
Soft%
12.5
GB%
38.2
Away
HR/FB
12.9
Hard%
29.6
FB%
38.3
Pull%
38.3
Soft%
14.8
GB%
42.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed
HR/9
1.08
Barrel % Allowed
9.2
Hard-Hit % Allowed
38.4
Avg EV Allowed
89.1
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB (HR factor)
98
vs RHB (HR factor)
110
vs SHB (HR factor)
104

Great American Ball Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat
🐾 Tonight vs NYMProjected lineupTotal threat: 134%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)
PitchUse%BRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%
FF56.69.236.651.32014.9
SL⚡ PUT-AWAY37.010.044.369.18935.9
CH6.321.425.086.43214.3
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
FF4-Seam Fastball57% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB7.529.952.31614.8102
vs RHB11.345.349.32113.568
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY37% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY8.345.883.14739.666
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT10.941.361.22631.073
CHChangeup6% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB21.435.786.43213.317
vs RHBno sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 35.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat
vs LHB🐾 exploit
8HR in 185 PA · 4.3%
Most off 4-Seamer
27 PA since last HR allowed
4-Seamer 4Changeup 2Slider 2
vs RHB
2HR in 141 PA · 1.4%
Most off 4-Seamer
30 PA since last HR allowed
4-Seamer 1Slider 1
HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot
⚠ Gets punished most by spot #21 of 3 HRs allowed (33%).
1
·
1
2
🐾
1
3
🐾
4
·
5
·
1
6
🐾
7
·
8
·
9
·
Vulnerable to:#2#3#6

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.