Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

38.9%

+157

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 4.9 K over 5.4 IP

Over 5.5 K

38.9%

+157

Over 6.5 K

21.7%

+360

Over 7.5 K

10.0%

+899

Over 8.5 K

3.8%

+2570

Season Pitching

ERA

4.11

WHIP

1.21

K/9

8.2

Expected IP

5.4

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

4.84

FIP

4.53

HR/9

1.42

19.9

BB%

7.7

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

33.9

FB%

40.1

Pull%

42.6

Soft%

15.8

GB%

34.9

vs LHB

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

30.7

FB%

37.0

Pull%

41.3

Soft%

12.0

GB%

38.4

vs RHB

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

35.0

FB%

41.1

Pull%

43.0

Soft%

17.0

GB%

33.8

🐾Home

HR/FB

9.8

Hard%

38.1

FB%

38.6

Pull%

45.0

Soft%

14.4

GB%

36.1

Away

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

29.0

FB%

41.8

Pull%

39.9

Soft%

17.4

GB%

33.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

1.03

Barrel % Allowed

9.3

Hard-Hit % Allowed

39.7

Avg EV Allowed

89.0

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

vs RHB (HR factor)

vs SHB (HR factor)

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs STLProjected lineupTotal threat: 106%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.5	10.8	52.5	55	.362	9.8
CHChangeup	21.9	4.3	22.7	60	.262	20.0
FCCutter	19.4	5.3	37.0	74	.354	16.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	17.1	13.0	30.0	87	.185	26.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	64.3	57	.480	8.0	16
vs RHB	7.8	52.9	55	.334	9.9	63

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	50	.119	30.8	9
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.7	23.3	61	.280	18.3	61

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.9	35.3	77	.306	27.3	22
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	40.0	73	.374	14.3	48

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	20.0	100	.153	25.0	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	27.8	83	.190	25.6	42

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB

4HR in 81 PA · 4.9%

Most off Slider

52 PA since last HR allowed

Slider 34-Seamer 1

vs RHB🐾 exploit

6HR in 235 PA · 2.5%

Most off Changeup

2 PA since last HR allowed

Changeup 2Curveball 1Cutter 14-Seamer 1Sinker 1

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #1 — 3 of 8 HRs allowed (38%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#1#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.