Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Pitcher Strikeouts

49.8%

+101

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

Projected 5.5 K over 5.4 IP

Over 5.5 K

49.8%

+101

Over 6.5 K

30.7%

+226

Over 7.5 K

15.7%

+535

Over 8.5 K

6.6%

+1411

Season Pitching

ERA

2.68

WHIP

1.09

K/9

9.2

Expected IP

5.4

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT

Proj IP

ERA

4.12

FIP

4.01

HR/9

1.21

22.8

BB%

7.5

2026 Contact Allowed

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.3

Hard%

31.5

FB%

36.8

Pull%

40.9

Soft%

15.8

GB%

44.0

vs LHB

HR/FB

6.1

Hard%

20.7

FB%

39.3

Pull%

40.2

Soft%

16.1

GB%

41.7

vs RHB

HR/FB

10.8

Hard%

36.0

FB%

35.7

Pull%

41.2

Soft%

15.6

GB%

44.9

Home

HR/FB

3.8

Hard%

31.2

FB%

34.2

Pull%

34.4

Soft%

16.6

GB%

47.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

14.5

Hard%

31.9

FB%

39.6

Pull%

48.2

Soft%

14.9

GB%

40.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = SP suppresses contact (low Hard / FB / HR-FB allowed). Red = HR-prone tendency.

Contact Quality Allowed

HR/9

0.90

Barrel % Allowed

6.1

Hard-Hit % Allowed

34.0

Avg EV Allowed

87.5

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB (HR factor)

vs RHB (HR factor)

108

vs SHB (HR factor)

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier for that batter side.

Opposing Lineup — HR Threat

🐾 Tonight vs MILConfirmed lineupTotal threat: 92%

Red = top HR threats (≥ 12% projected). The bigger the bat you can't avoid, the higher the SP's HR-allowed risk.

Pitch Arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	31.3	8.2	36.2	43	.230	25.0
CHChangeup	24.7	7.7	23.9	60	.234	24.8
SISinker	16.9	5.0	49.1	62	.415	7.1
CUCurveball	11.1	4.2	9.5	63	.252	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	11.1	38.9	44	.214	25.8	29
vs RHB	7.3	41.8	42	.236	22.8	91

CHChangeup25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	60.0	80	.256	29.4	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	8.5	25.5	57	.231	25.5	87

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	28.0	60	.328	8.3	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.6	60.0	63	.475	0.0	37

CUCurveball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	11.1	67	.159	0.0	10
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.7	26.7	60	.312	0.0	16

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Profile — where he gets beat

vs LHB

2HR in 107 PA · 1.9%

Most off Slider

13 PA since last HR allowed

Slider 2

vs RHB🐾 exploit

9HR in 259 PA · 3.5%

Most off Cutter

17 PA since last HR allowed

Cutter 34-Seamer 3Changeup 1Sinker 1Slider 1

HR Allowed by Opposing Lineup Spot

⚠ Gets punished most by spot #1 — 1 of 3 HRs allowed (33%).

🐾

Vulnerable to:#1#3#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.